Infrastructure ages and breaks down; anyone who has been on the Boston T, the Paris metro at rush hour, or any German train can testify. But what happens to the local economy when it doesn't get fixed... like, forever?

Our recent (2026) Journal of Regional Science publication uses the quasi-experiment of the Leverkusen Rhine bridge near Cologne to document this decay in real time. First, the area becomes less connected to the rest of the world. Then property prices drop in response: commercial first, residential with a longer lag. Finally, firms that can no longer bear the additional cost may resort to moving out of the region, once and for all.

The paper represents a seven-year journey on my part, but that is still less time than it takes to repair the bridge: the problems first surfaced in 2012, but the new bridge only opened in 2024, with just the first phase completed; a second phase to double its capacity is scheduled (ahem) to finish in 2027. To make it a truly German story, a misdirected fax that stalled the work and a local protest against Phase II must be added to the mix.

With this paper, we would like to raise the alarm about infrastructure obsolescence: when infrastructure breaks down and is not repaired in time, the damage to the local economy can be significant and lasting. This is a cautionary tale in particular for the large part of the developed world that faces aging infrastructure and budgetary pressure at the same time.